2024 Predictions

Happy Meteorological Fall, the day that meteorologists use to kick off the fall season for more weather-reporting consistency. While it is not the “official” start to fall (that happens with the autumn equinox on September 22 this year) it is a good day for a fall predication post.

As my predecessor, John Poimiroo, explained, “When it comes to predicting fall color, it’s anyone’s guess whether it will be early or late. There is no science yet to predicting fall color. It appears generally due to the change in light. In fall color’s case, Less Is More. Less light, more color.”

Less of the sun’s warming rays means colder days, but it is the reduction in light (shorter days) that is the trigger, not the cold. Only when the cold persists is it a trigger to different behavior. 

“Cold affects color, but mostly as to its intensity,” Poimiroo added. “Warm days and cold nights are the ideal mix for vibrant fall color. The worst condition for lustrous color is overcast. To be intensely colorful, deciduous trees need clear warm days and clear cold nights.”

Chinese Pistache trees were dressed in yellow and orange by mid-August at 1,000′, much earlier than in previous years. Is that an indicator of an early autumn?

“Perhaps,” Poimiroo said, “but perhaps not. We’ve seen individual trees peak in summer (a liquidambar in Los Angeles) and as late as January (a quaking Aspen in the Eastern Sierra).”

In 2023 we had a bit of a delayed start to the season. Water is a big driver for vibrancy and length of season and when we have a wet winter, spring and summer, colors can show late because the leaves are so well-nourished that they continue to produce food (chlorophyll) as long as they can.

While water totals in winter and spring were above average in 2023/24, it was not the same intensity of winter 2022/23.  We expect colors should be back on track in 2024 with things starting to change in mid- to late-September, but we’ve been fooled before.

Below is the typical progression of color throughout the state, which we expect to hold true this year. The biggest disappointment people voice is that they waited too long for a location. Make sure you bookmark CaliforniaFallColor.com as your planning tool for the season.

Use the site to look for the most spectacular locations from past years, then go to those locations within a week this year. You’re probably gonna see beautiful fall color.  But wait a month and you surely missed it.

• Late September to late October – the Eastern Sierra (Inyo and Mono Counties, US-395);
• October – the Northern Sierra (Hope Valley/Carson Pass, Lake Tahoe, CA-89);
• October – Southern California’s mountains (San Bernardino, San Gorgonio, San Jacinto and Laguna mountains, Angeles National Forest);
• Mid October to early November – the Shasta Cascade (Plumas County, Lassen Volcanic National Park, Shasta-Trinity National Forest, Trinity Alps, CA-299, Redding, Chico);
• Mid October to early November – the North Coast (Redwood National & State Parks), Elk rut late September to mid-October;
• Late October to early November – California’s vineyards (peaking by grape variety);
• Mid October to mid-November – Central Coast (wineries,  Salinas Valley, Monarch butterflies);
• Late October to mid-November – Gold Country (Calaveras Big Trees SP, Apple Hill, wineries, Hwy 49 and its chain of 1850s Gold Rush towns);
• Mid October to Thanksgiving Day – Western & Southern Sierra (Yosemite National Park, Kings Canyon & Sequoia National Parks);
• November – the Central Valley (walnut and pistachio orchards, pumpkin patches, corn mazes, wildlife refuges);
• November to early December – California’s urban forests (Sacramento, San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Stockton, Modesto and arboreta and botanic gardens); and
• December – The Deserts and Coastal Islands.